What this dossier covers
- Banker, Player and Tie win frequencies for a standard eight-deck shoe
- The fixed third-card drawing tableau, laid out as a lookup table
- Why the Banker bet wins more often, and how the 5% commission is calibrated to it
- House edge for Banker, Player and Tie at both 8:1 and 9:1 tie payouts
Download the dossier
Free, no sign-up. 2026 edition · Week 22. Every figure inside carries its rule premise.
About this reference
This dossier condenses material developed at length in First Principles, the encyclopedia's derivation section, into a printable reference you can keep. As with everything on BetCanon, the figures are mathematically derived and each is presented with the rule set it assumes — because a table-game number without its premise is not a fact, only a rumour.
Basic strategy, house-edge tables and probability figures reduce the average cost of play; they do not remove it. Every casino table bet retains a positive house edge against the player, and any single session can swing far from its expectation — see variance and standard deviation for why.
Frequently asked
Why does the Banker bet win more often than the Player bet?
The Banker acts last and its third-card drawing rules depend on the Player's third card. That informational advantage produces a small but permanent edge in Banker's favour — roughly 50.7% of decided (non-tie) hands. The 5% commission exists to claw that edge back for the house.
Is the Tie bet ever worth taking?
Mathematically, no. At the common 8:1 payout the Tie carries a house edge above 14% — one of the worst standard bets on the floor. Even at 9:1 it remains far worse than Banker or Player. This dossier shows the arithmetic.
Do these probabilities change with the number of decks?
Only very slightly. The figures here assume a standard eight-deck shoe. Six-deck and single-deck baccarat shift the edges by hundredths of a percent, not enough to change which bet is best. The premise is stated on every figure.